Electric Car News;
Tesla (NASDAQ: $TSLA) Reveals
Master Plan
Point Roberts, WA, Delta BC – July 212016 –
Investorideas.com, a global news source and investor resource covering actively
traded sectors reports on electric car
maker, Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) as the
much anticipated master plan was revealed by CEO, Elon Musk. Shares are down in
today’s trading session, trading as low as $220.50.
Integrate Energy Generation and Storage
Create a smoothly integrated and beautiful
solar-roof-with-battery product that just works, empowering the individual as
their own utility, and then scale that throughout the world. One ordering
experience, one installation, one service contact, one phone app.
We can't do this well if Tesla and SolarCity are
different companies, which is why we need to combine and break down the barriers
inherent to being separate companies. That they are separate at all, despite
similar origins and pursuit of the same overarching goal of sustainable energy,
is largely an accident of history. Now that Tesla is ready to scale Powerwall
and SolarCity is ready to provide highly differentiated solar, the time has
come to bring them together.
Expand to Cover the Major Forms of Terrestrial
Transport
Today, Tesla addresses two relatively small
segments of premium sedans and SUVs. With the Model 3, a future compact SUV and
a new kind of pickup truck, we plan to address most of the consumer market. A
lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the
third part of the plan described below.
What really matters to accelerate a sustainable
future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That
is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the
machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product. A
first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that
somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a
roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be
thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.
In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two
other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high
passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development
at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year. We believe the Tesla Semi
will deliver a substantial reduction in the cost of cargo transport, while
increasing safety and making it really fun to operate.
With the advent of autonomy, it will probably make
sense to shrink the size of buses and transition the role of bus driver to that
of fleet manager. Traffic congestion would improve due to increased passenger
areal density by eliminating the center aisle and putting seats where there are
currently entryways, and matching acceleration and braking to other vehicles,
thus avoiding the inertial impedance to smooth traffic flow of traditional
heavy buses. It would also take people all the way to their destination. Fixed
summon buttons at existing bus stops would serve those who don't have a phone.
Design accommodates wheelchairs, strollers and bikes.
Autonomy
As the technology matures, all Tesla vehicles will
have the hardware necessary to be fully self-driving with fail-operational
capability, meaning that any given system in the car could break and your car
will still drive itself safely. It is important to emphasize that refinement
and validation of the software will take much longer than putting in place the
cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware.
Even once the software is highly refined and far
better than the average human driver, there will still be a significant time
gap, varying widely by jurisdiction, before true self-driving is approved by
regulators. We expect that worldwide regulatory approval will require something
on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km). Current fleet learning is
happening at just over 3 million miles (5 million km) per day.
I should add a note here to explain why Tesla is
deploying partial autonomy now, rather than waiting until some point in the
future. The most important reason is that, when used correctly, it is already
significantly safer than a person driving by themselves and it would therefore
be morally reprehensible to delay release simply for fear of bad press or some
mercantile calculation of legal liability.
According to the recently released 2015 NHTSA
report, automotive fatalities increased by 8% to one death every 89 million
miles. Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice that number and the system gets
better every day. It would no more make sense to disable Tesla's Autopilot, as
some have called for, than it would to disable autopilot in aircraft, after
which our system is named.
It is also important to explain why we refer to
Autopilot as "beta". This is not beta software in any normal sense of
the word. Every release goes through extensive internal validation before it
reaches any customers. It is called beta in order to decrease complacency and
indicate that it will continue to improve (Autopilot is always off by default).
Once we get to the point where Autopilot is approximately 10 times safer than
the US vehicle average, the beta label will be removed.
Sharing
When true self-driving is approved by regulators,
it will mean that you will be able to summon your Tesla from pretty much anywhere.
Once it picks you up, you will be able to sleep, read or do anything else
enroute to your destination.
You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla
shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it
generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation, significantly
offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost.
This dramatically lowers the true cost of ownership to the point where almost
anyone could own a Tesla. Since most cars are only in use by their owner for 5%
to 10% of the day, the fundamental economic utility of a true self-driving car
is likely to be several times that of a car which is not.
In cities where demand exceeds the supply of
customer-owned cars, Tesla will operate its own fleet, ensuring you can always
hail a ride from us no matter where you are.
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